Foreıgn Polıcy Analysıs Deneme Sınavı Sorusu #1134444

  1. The decision-makers act upon objective data and prefer a formal process of analysis to intuition and subjectivity.
  2. The decision maker has full or perfect information on the circumstances of the situation and about the alternatives available.
  3. Not all decisions are taken under perfect information, and there are psychological and intellectual limits of human beings.
  4. Psychological and intellectual limits of human beings, coupled with the human tendencies create a decision environment where perfectly rational decision making is not possible.
  5. People tend to consent to “satisfice” themselves by sequentially analyzing the choices available until they find one that “meets their minimum standards of acceptability, one that will “suffice” and “satisfy”.

Which of the assumptions above are related to the bounded rationality concept?


 I and II

II and III

III and IV

III, IV and V

I, II, III and V


Yanıt Açıklaması:

Fundamentally the assumption about rationality of the decision-makers is that they act upon objective data and prefer a formal process of analysis to intuition and subjectivity. Ideally, the model also assumes that the decision maker has full or perfect information (a state where all data germane to a particular issue, decision, is known and available) on the circumstances of the situation and about the alternatives available. In his seminal book on decision processes, Graham Allison (1971, p.30) prescribes rationality as “consistent, value-maximizing choice within specific constrains”. The decision-makers are portrayed as individuals with the cognitive ability, and resources to evaluate and compare alternatives in the available time frame with the ultimate aim of maximizing utility and minimizing associated costs. So, rational decision makers on foreign policy are “those who are open to arguments and evidence, free of serious blinkers as they weigh the evidence and think about the likely consequences of options” (Stein, 2008, 131). A litmus test of what constitutes a rationally reached decision is that, ideally, when presented with identical information, all rational decision makers would arrive to the same conclusion for the decision in question. A logical deduction from the foregoing conjecture is that collective decision making processes should be favored as due to the deliberative nature and inherent checks and balances involved they would often tend to generate rational outcomes. What is more, not all decisions are taken under perfect information, and there are psychological and intellectual limits of human beings. These limitations, coupled with the human tendencies like the desire to simplify the world, taking shortcuts, the difficulties of processing complex sets of variables in mind simultaneously, especially when we are faced with a situation that fall beyond our expertise – and at times even on issues that we hold a certain expertise on, creates a decision environment where perfectly rational decision making is not possible. As a result, people tend to consent to “satisfice” themselves by sequentially analyzing the choices available until they find one that “meets their minimum standards of acceptability, one that will “suffice” and “satisfy” (Gerner, 1995, p.25). Policy makers do frequently ‘muddle through’ looking for outcomes that are the best available given the set of parameters they face. This phenomenon is defined as bounded rationality. The concepts of bounded rationality and “satisficing” were first developed by Herbert Simon (1965). Simon’s argument was that the decision-making problems were so complex that the decision-makers were only able to tackle a certain number of aspects at a given time. This makes reaching optimum estimations pretty hard. “It is impossible to consider all alternatives so policy-makers tend to consider the most obvious, most attainable, most reasonable, etc. Of course, as the actual decision process proceeds other alternatives may occur or originally conceived alternatives may disappear” (Evans and Newnham, 1998, p.464).

As also understood from the information given, the assumptions in the option III “Not all decisions are taken under perfect information, and there are psychological and intellectual limits of human beings.”, in the option IV “Psychological and intellectual limits of human beings, coupled with the human tendencies create a decision environment where perfectly rational decision making is not possible.” and in the option V “People tend to consent to “satisfice” themselves by sequentially analyzing the choices available until they find one that “meets their minimum standards of acceptability, one that will “suffice” and “satisfy”.” are related to bounded rationality concept, so the correct answer is D.

The assumptions in the option I “The decision-makers act upon objective data and prefer a formal process of analysis to intuition and subjectivity.” and “ The decision maker has full or perfect information on the circumstances of the situation and about the alternatives available.” are related to rationality.

 

 

 

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