Busıness Decısıon Models Ara 1. Deneme Sınavı

Toplam 20 Soru
PAYLAŞ:

1.Soru

What kind of a decision making environment is when the decision maker knows everything about the problem and outcomes of the events?


Decision making under uncertainty

Decision making under risk

Decision making under error

Decision making under certainty

Decision making under complexity


2.Soru

In which of the following cases are mathematical and statistical methods used to calculate the expected value of the profit without simulation?


Uncertainty

Little information

Scarce source

Many alternatives

Negative attitude


3.Soru

Which of the following is not among the common characteristics of decision making?


Outcomes

Objectives

Strategies

Events

Risks


4.Soru

  1. x1 , x2 , x3 ? 0
  2. 8x2 – x1 ? 0
  3. x1, x2, ? 0
  4. ei , xi ? 0 for all i = 1,...,4
  5. xi,j ? 0 (i=1,2,3)   (j=1,2,3,4)

Which of the above can be non-negativity constraints in a linear model?


I and II

III and IV

II, III and IV

I, II, IV and V

I, II, III, IV and V


5.Soru

Which of the following expresses  a non-negativity constraint?


2x – 3y

x + y = 4 

x – 3y ≤ 2

2x + 3y

x ≥ y


6.Soru

In which method does the decision maker think that the worst outcomes for each alternative will be realized?


Criterion of pessimism

Criterion of optimism

Criterion of realism 

Equally likely

Minimax regret 


7.Soru

I. Branches

II. Probability Nodes 

III. Chance Nodes

IV. Payoffs

Which of the elements listed above are among the components of a decision tree?


I and II

II and III

II, III and IV

I, II and III

I, III and IV


8.Soru

"In this criterion, the decision maker confronts the various possible states of nature in a decision under risk and; he or she chooses the alternative that is best for the most likely state of nature, rather than calculating in all states of nature."

Which criterion is described above?


Expected value criterion 

Expected opportunity loss criterion 

Maximum probability criterion 

Expected profit criterion 

Risky investment criterion


9.Soru

Bayes’ theorem provides a way for _____ prior probabilities with probabilities obtained by other sources; revised or posterior probabilities.

Which of the following best fills the blank above?


eliminating

risking

deciding

excluding

combining


10.Soru

What is the first step in the decision-making process?


Defining the problem

Establishing objectives

Listing all possible decision alternatives

Identifying the possible outcomes for each decision alternative

Identifying the pay-off matrix for each combination of alternatives 


11.Soru

If the problem is the maximization, the best outcome is the highest value. In this case, the alternative which is the highest value is chosen.

According to the explanation given above, which of the following is this method?


Criterion of Realism

Criterion of Optimism

Minimax Regret

Criterion of Pessimism

Equally Likely


12.Soru

.................... are the values of alternatives and events. They are usually numeric values. Which of the following is written in the blank?


Decision Maker

Objective

Alternatives

Outcomes

Events


13.Soru

    States of Nature

      S1(0.5)  S2(0.2)  S3(0.3)

A1   50        110         30

A2   90          40         50

A3   70        100         10

What is the Expected Monetary Value of the TL cost strategy table above ?


56

62

68

64

58


14.Soru

If the problem is incorrectly determined in defining decision problem step, how will be the decision?


Wrong

Right

Clear

Concise

Important


15.Soru

An investor has $1,000 to invest in bonds and stocks of a company. A bond costs $5 and pays $1 coupon annually. The expected one-year yield on this bond is 25%. A stock costs $10 per share and pays $0.8 dividend. The total rate of return expectation for stock B is 50%. For liquidity reasons, investor demands at least $80 of cash from dividends (or coupons) at the end of the year. So as to manage the risk of the portfolio, investor sets an upper and lower limit to the percentage of the funds to be invested in stocks, which are 40% and 20%, respectively. The investor has to decide the optimal amount of shares which makes the total rate of return for the portfolio is maximum. 

According to the information above, what are the decision variables?


Maximize Z = (5 × 0.25)x1 + (10 × 0.50)x2

The quantities, x1 for bonds and x2 for stocks

x1 + 0.8x2 ≥ 80

5x1 + 10x2 ≤ 1000

6x2 – 2x1 ≤ 0 and 8x2 – x1 ≥ 0


16.Soru

Which step of decision making process includes a good understanding of management assumptions, organizational boundaries and the desired conditions for the problem?


Establishing objectives

Defining decision problem

Listing alternatives

Identifying outcomes

Determining the best alternative


17.Soru

     States of Nature

       S1(0.5)  S2(0.2)  S3(0.3)

A1   50         110         30

A2   90           40         50

A3   70         100         10

What is the highest gain value of the TL gain strategy table above according to the maximum probability criterion ?


100

50

90

70

110


18.Soru

     States of Nature

       S1(0.2)  S2(0.3)  S3(0.5)

A1   50         110          30

A2  100          60          50

A3   70           90          60

What is the minimum Expected Opportunity Loss of the TL cost strategy table above ?


25

17

12

22

20


19.Soru

In the decision making process under risk, a probability value must be determined for the chance of realization of all states of nature in the strategy table. So, what must the sum of all probabilities of states of nature be equal to ?


0

1

-1

10

100


20.Soru

According to the data given in question 7, which is the most appropriate decision according to the minimax regret method?


A1 with 20

A2 with 20

A3 with 6

A3 with 14

A1 with 0