Busıness Decısıon Models Ara 1. Deneme Sınavı
Toplam 20 Soru1.Soru
What kind of a decision making environment is when the decision maker knows everything about the problem and outcomes of the events?
Decision making under uncertainty |
Decision making under risk |
Decision making under error |
Decision making under certainty |
Decision making under complexity |
When the decision maker knows everything about the problem and outcomes of the events, the decision making environment is called “decision making under certainty”. In this case, because the decision maker knows everything about the problem, it is easier to make the best decision. The correct answer is "D".
2.Soru
In which of the following cases are mathematical and statistical methods used to calculate the expected value of the profit without simulation?
Uncertainty |
Little information |
Scarce source |
Many alternatives |
Negative attitude |
In case of uncertainty, two different ways are followed to make a good decisions. One of them is the simulation which different combinations of possible demands and startup costs will be tried on the computer. Thus, this simulation can give us a better idea of the possible values of the profit obtained. The other method is to use mathematical and statistical methods to calculate the expected value of the profit without simulation. The correct answer is A.
3.Soru
Which of the following is not among the common characteristics of decision making?
Outcomes |
Objectives |
Strategies |
Events |
Risks |
There are some common characteristics of decision making. These are “decision maker”, “objective”, “alternatives (strategies/actions)”, “events (states of nature)”, “outcomes (pay-off)” and “payoff table / pay off matrices”. The correct answer is E.
4.Soru
- x1 , x2 , x3 ? 0
- 8x2 – x1 ? 0
- x1, x2, ? 0
- ei , xi ? 0 for all i = 1,...,4
- xi,j ? 0 (i=1,2,3) (j=1,2,3,4)
Which of the above can be non-negativity constraints in a linear model?
I and II |
III and IV |
II, III and IV |
I, II, IV and V |
I, II, III, IV and V |
A linear expression appears below; the powers of its variables x and y are equal to one.
2x – 3y
A linear constraint requires a linear expression to be equal to a number, to be less/greater than or equal to a number.
x + y = 4
x – 3y ? 2
x ? y
The last expression stated above is called a non-negativity constraint, which requires the value x to be greater or equal to zero. A linear program either minimizes or maximizes a linear expression subject to defined linear constraints.
As also understood from the information given, the correct answer is E. All expressions in the options are non-negativity constraints.
5.Soru
Which of the following expresses a non-negativity constraint?
2x – 3y |
x + y = 4 |
x – 3y ≤ 2 |
2x + 3y |
x ≥ y |
A linear expression appears below; the powers of its variables x and y are equal to one.
2x – 3y
A linear constraint requires a linear expression to be equal to a number, to be less/greater than or equal to a number.
x + y = 4
x – 3y ≤ 2
x ≥ y
The last expression stated above is called a non-negativity constraint, which requires the value x to be greater or equal to zero. A linear program either minimizes or maximizes a linear expression subject to defined linear constraints. The correct answer is E.
6.Soru
In which method does the decision maker think that the worst outcomes for each alternative will be realized?
Criterion of pessimism |
Criterion of optimism |
Criterion of realism |
Equally likely |
Minimax regret |
In criterion of pessimism, the decision maker thinks that the worst outcomes for each alternative will be realized.
7.Soru
I. Branches
II. Probability Nodes
III. Chance Nodes
IV. Payoffs
Which of the elements listed above are among the components of a decision tree?
I and II |
II and III |
II, III and IV |
I, II and III |
I, III and IV |
A decision tree is composed of some components as; branches, decision nodes, chance nodes, and payoffs. The correct answer is E.
8.Soru
"In this criterion, the decision maker confronts the various possible states of nature in a decision under risk and; he or she chooses the alternative that is best for the most likely state of nature, rather than calculating in all states of nature."
Which criterion is described above?
"In this criterion, the decision maker confronts the various possible states of nature in a decision under risk and; he or she chooses the alternative that is best for the most likely state of nature, rather than calculating in all states of nature."
Which criterion is described above?
Expected value criterion |
Expected opportunity loss criterion |
Maximum probability criterion |
Expected profit criterion |
Risky investment criterion |
In maximum probability criterion, the decision maker confronts the various possible states of nature in a decision under risk and; he or she chooses the alternative that is best for the most likely state of nature, rather than calculating in all states of nature.
9.Soru
Bayes’ theorem provides a way for _____ prior probabilities with probabilities obtained by other sources; revised or posterior probabilities.
Which of the following best fills the blank above?
eliminating |
risking |
deciding |
excluding |
combining |
Bayes’ theorem provides a way for combining prior probabilities with probabilities obtained by other sources; revised or posterior probabilities.
10.Soru
What is the first step in the decision-making process?
Defining the problem |
Establishing objectives |
Listing all possible decision alternatives |
Identifying the possible outcomes for each decision alternative |
Identifying the pay-off matrix for each combination of alternatives |
The first step in the decision-making process is to define the problem. Perhaps this is the most important and most difficult part of the process. At this step, it is very important to describe the problem statement clearly and concisely.
11.Soru
If the problem is the maximization, the best outcome is the highest value. In this case, the alternative which is the highest value is chosen.
According to the explanation given above, which of the following is this method?
Criterion of Realism |
Criterion of Optimism |
Minimax Regret |
Criterion of Pessimism |
Equally Likely |
In application of the Criterion of Optimism, when the objective function is maximization, the maximum values for the alternatives are determined. The highest of these maximum values is selected.
12.Soru
.................... are the values of alternatives and events. They are usually numeric values. Which of the following is written in the blank?
Decision Maker |
Objective |
Alternatives |
Outcomes |
Events |
Outcomes/Pay-Offs: These are the values of alternatives and events. Outcomes are usually numeric values. The correct answer is "D".
13.Soru
States of Nature
S1(0.5) S2(0.2) S3(0.3)
A1 50 110 30
A2 90 40 50
A3 70 100 10
What is the Expected Monetary Value of the TL cost strategy table above ?
56 |
62 |
68 |
64 |
58 |
EMV min : x = 50 (0.3) + 110 (0.2) + 30 (0.3) = 56 . pg. 36. Correct answer is A.
14.Soru
If the problem is incorrectly determined in defining decision problem step, how will be the decision?
Wrong |
Right |
Clear |
Concise |
Important |
Problem statement gives direction and meaning to all other steps of decision making. If the problem is incorrectly determined in this step, the decision will be wrong.
15.Soru
An investor has $1,000 to invest in bonds and stocks of a company. A bond costs $5 and pays $1 coupon annually. The expected one-year yield on this bond is 25%. A stock costs $10 per share and pays $0.8 dividend. The total rate of return expectation for stock B is 50%. For liquidity reasons, investor demands at least $80 of cash from dividends (or coupons) at the end of the year. So as to manage the risk of the portfolio, investor sets an upper and lower limit to the percentage of the funds to be invested in stocks, which are 40% and 20%, respectively. The investor has to decide the optimal amount of shares which makes the total rate of return for the portfolio is maximum.
According to the information above, what are the decision variables?
Maximize Z = (5 × 0.25)x1 + (10 × 0.50)x2 |
The quantities, x1 for bonds and x2 for stocks |
x1 + 0.8x2 ≥ 80 |
5x1 + 10x2 ≤ 1000 |
6x2 – 2x1 ≤ 0 and 8x2 – x1 ≥ 0 |
The decision variables are The quantities, x1 for bonds and x2 for stocks. The objective function seeks to maximize total yields of the holdings and is thus expressed as Maximize Z = (5 × 0.25)x1 + (10 × 0.50)x2 A constraint of the model reflects the liquidity requirements at the end of the year x1 + 0.8x2 ≥ 80 Another constraint is about the size of the portfolio and related to prices of the securities 5x1 + 10x2 ≤ 1000 Percentage limits of the funds to be invested in stocks should not be less than 20% and more than 40%. That means the money spent on stocks cannot exceed the %40 of the total amount of money spent on both types of security. On the other side, the money spent on stocks cannot drop down under %20. These constraints are 10x2 ≤ 0.40 (5x1 + 10x2 ) 10x2 ≥ 0.20 (5x1 + 10x2 ) Simplified expressions of these are 6x2 – 2x1 ≤ 0 and 8x2 – x1 ≥ 0. The correct answer is B.
16.Soru
Which step of decision making process includes a good understanding of management assumptions, organizational boundaries and the desired conditions for the problem?
Establishing objectives |
Defining decision problem |
Listing alternatives |
Identifying outcomes |
Determining the best alternative |
The first step in the decision-making process is to define the problem. This step includes a good understanding of management assumptions, organizational boundaries and the desired conditions for the problem. In order to identify the problem, all information about it should be collected, factors and causes associated with the problem should be determined. The correct answer is B.
17.Soru
States of Nature
S1(0.5) S2(0.2) S3(0.3)
A1 50 110 30
A2 90 40 50
A3 70 100 10
What is the highest gain value of the TL gain strategy table above according to the maximum probability criterion ?
100 |
50 |
90 |
70 |
110 |
90 . pg. 39 . Correct answer is C.
18.Soru
States of Nature
S1(0.2) S2(0.3) S3(0.5)
A1 50 110 30
A2 100 60 50
A3 70 90 60
What is the minimum Expected Opportunity Loss of the TL cost strategy table above ?
25 |
17 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
A1 : x1 = (100 – 50) (0.2) + (110 – 110) (0.3) + (60 – 30) (0.5) = 10 + 0 + 15 = 25 ; A2 : x2 = (100 – 100) (0.2) + (110 – 60) (0.3) + (60 – 50) (0.5) = 0 + 15 + 5 = 20 ; A3 : x3 = (100 – 70) (0.2) + (110 – 90) (0.3) + (60 – 60) (0.5) = 6 + 6 + 0 = 12 . pg. 37 . Correct answer is C.
19.Soru
In the decision making process under risk, a probability value must be determined for the chance of realization of all states of nature in the strategy table. So, what must the sum of all probabilities of states of nature be equal to ?
0 |
1 |
-1 |
10 |
100 |
As known, the probability values change from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event occurrence probability is low and 1 means this probability is high. The process of determining probabilities for states of nature is very important. In the decision making process under risk, a probability value must be determined for the chance of realization of all states of nature in the strategy table and the sum of all probabilities of states of nature must be equal to 1. After these possibilities are added to the strategy table, the decision maker should determine which approach will be used to select the best course of action. The correct answer is B.
20.Soru
According to the data given in question 7, which is the most appropriate decision according to the minimax regret method?
A1 with 20 |
A2 with 20 |
A3 with 6 |
A3 with 14 |
A1 with 0 |
A3 with 6 is the most appropriate decision according to minimax regret method.
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