Busıness Decısıon Models Ara 4. Deneme Sınavı
Toplam 14 Soru1.Soru
What is the range of the probability values?
5 to 10 |
0 to 100 |
0 to 1000 |
0 to 1 |
0 to 10 |
The probability values change from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event occurrence probability is low and 1 means this probability is high.
2.Soru
If decision maker has a pessimistic approach, the Criterion of Pessimism can be used. According to this criterion, the decision maker thinks that the ------- outcome for each alternative will be realized.
Which of the below is appropriate for the blank in the quoted sentence?
highest |
best |
worst |
last |
first |
If decision maker has a pessimistic approach, the Criterion of Pessimism can be used. The decision maker thinks that the worst outcomes for each alternative will be realized.
3.Soru
Once the decision problem has been identified, what will be the next step?
Establishing objectives |
Listing decision alternatives |
Identifing the possible outcomes for each decision alternative |
Determining the best alternative |
Making the decision |
Once the decision problem has been identified, in the second step the objective of the problem must be clearly stated.The correct answer is "A".
4.Soru
According to ____________ criterion, the decision maker should ignore all possible events except the one most likely to occur, and should select the best possible result in the given circumstances.
Expected Monetary Value |
Expected Opportunity Loss |
Expected Regret |
Maximum Probability |
Expected Value of Perfect Information |
In this criterion, the decision maker confronts the various possible states of nature in a decision under risk and; he or she chooses the alternative that is best for the most likely state of nature, rather than calculating in all states of nature. With another saying, it states that the decision maker should ignore all possible events except the one most likely to occur, and should select the best possible result (maximum gain or minimum loss) in the given circumstances. The correct answer is D.
5.Soru
In which method used when making a decision under uncertainty, calculation is made considering that the event’s possibility occur equally?
Equally likely |
Criterion of optimism |
Criterion of pessimism |
Criterion of realism |
Minimax regret |
In equally likely method calculation is made considering that the event’s possibility occur equally.
6.Soru
States of Nature
S1(0.6) S2(0.4)
A1 50 110
A2 100 60
A3 60 100
A4 70 90
A5 90 70
Which decision alternative (A1..A5) of the TL cost strategy table above should be chosen depend on Expected Monetary Value criterion?
A1 |
A2 |
A3 |
A4 |
A5 |
EMV max : x = 50 (0.6) + 110 (0.4) = 74 . pg. 36. Correct answer is A.
7.Soru
Who introduced the systematic solution which is called “simplex algorithm”?
Leonid V. Kantorovich |
George B. Dantzig |
Tjalling C. Koopmans |
William W. Cooper |
Chester Barnard |
The foundation of operations research is mostly cited to studies and applications in the U.S. Army right before The World War II. However, Leonid V. Kantorovich is recognized as the first to explore this area. In 1939, Kantorovich published a paper on a method for a production plan which he claimed to be the optimal way. This study included a linear program without a systematic solution. The systematic solution which is called “simplex algorithm” was later introduced by George B. Dantzig, who had planning experience in the U.S. Army Air Force.
As also understood from the information given, the correct answer is B.
Information about the other names in the options:
Tjalling C. Koopmans, who built a model for ship routes, was another contributor to the field. He and Kantorovich shared 1975 Nobel Prize in economics for their studies on the optimal allocation of resources.
Industrial applications of linear programming Stemmed from the oil industry after William W. Cooper and his colleagues’ publications about the efficient blending of aviation fuels. As the computational ability of the solver systems advanced rapidly, operations research started to be used widely.
Sometime in the midst of the last century, Chester Barnard, a retired telephone executive and author of The Functions of the Executive, imported the term “decision making” from the lexicon of public administration into the business world.
8.Soru
When the decision maker has information about the probabilities of occurrence of the events, what is the decision making environment called?
Decision Making Process |
Cost Of Making Errors |
Decision Making Under Risk |
Decision Making Under Certainty |
Decision Making Under Uncertainty |
When the decision maker has information about the probabilities of occurrence of the events, the decision making environment is called “decision making under risk”.
9.Soru
What is the second step in the decision-making process?
Defining the problem |
Establishing objectives |
Listing all possible decision alternatives |
Identifying the possible outcomes for each decision alternative |
Identifying the pay-off matrix for each combination of alternatives |
Once the decision problem has been identified, in the second step the objective of the problem must be clearly stated. Therefore, "Establishing objectives" is the second step.
10.Soru
What are the uncontrollable environmental factors that influence the choice of the decision maker?
Alternatives |
Outcomes |
Pay-Offs |
Values |
Events |
Events are environmental factors that influence the choice of the decision maker. However, they are uncontrollable.
11.Soru
What is the starting point in a decision tree?
Payoff |
Branch |
Decision node |
Chance node |
State of nature |
Since the decision tree is usually initiated by the first decision, a decision node positioned at the left side of the decision tree is also the starting node.
12.Soru
States of Nature
S1(0.2) S2(0.3) S3(0.5)
A1 50 110 30
A2 90 40 50
A3 70 100 10
What is the lowest loss value of the TL gain strategy table above according to the maximum probability criterion ?
40 |
70 |
50 |
30 |
10 |
10 . pg. 39 . Correct answer is E.
13.Soru
- Lowering costs
- Bringing more profitability
- Lengthening delivery times
- Increasing shareholder values
Which of the above are among the benefits of a high quality decision?
I and II |
III and IV |
I, II and III |
I, II and IV |
II, III and IV |
A high quality decision should bring more profitability and lower costs, shorten (not lengthen) delivery times, increase shareholder value, attract more new customers and provide positive responses from customers. The correct answer is D.
14.Soru
Which of the terms below can be defined as the function of a linear programming model that is desired to be maximized or minimized?
An objective function |
An optimal solution |
A mathematical model |
A linear expression |
A non-negativity constraint |
An objective function is the function of a linear programming model that is desired to be maximized or minimized. As also understood from the information given, the correct answer is A.
Information related to the other terms in the options as follows:
An optimal solution is a feasible solution that reaches the most favorable value of the objective function.
A mathematical model is an abstraction of the analyzed system using mathematical expressions.
Linear models consist of constraints and an objective in the form of a linear expression.
A non-negativity constraint requires the value x to be greater or equal to zero.