Busıness Decısıon Models Ara 7. Deneme Sınavı
Toplam 20 Soru1.Soru
Make a decision with Criterion of Realism method using the information in the Table.
(The objective is minimization.)
Product 1 with 9.3 days |
Product 2 with 12.9 days |
Product 3 with 12 days |
Product 4 with 8.9 days |
Product 5 with 7.6 days |
The alpha coefficient is determined by the decision maker as 0.3. Then 1-alpha becomes 0.7. In this case, the decision maker is optimistic with a probability of 30%, and pessimistic with a probability of 70%.
First, the minimum values are determined for each alternative. These values are multiplied by the α coefficient. Then the maximum values are determined for each alternative. These values are multiplied by the (1- α) coefficient. These values of each alternative are sum up.
Product 1 = 3*0.3 + 12*0.7 = 9.3 days
Product 2 = 1*0.3 + 18*0.7 = 12.9 days
Product 3 = 5*0.3 + 15*0.7 =12 days
Product 4 = 4*0.3 + 11*0.7 = 8.9 days
Product 5 = 2*0.3 + 10*0.7 = 7.6 days
Then, because the objective is minimization the lowest value (7.6 days) and the alternative for that value (Product 5) is selected.
2.Soru
- In the maximization models, the objective function is alternatively named profit function.
- In the maximization models the value of Z needs to be increased as much as possible.
- A finite number of iso-profit lines can be drawn for increasing values of Z.
- Under the constraints of the model, the highest possible value of Z must reside in the feasible region.
Which of the statements above about the maximization models are correct?
I and II |
I and III |
II and IV |
I, II and IV |
II, III and IV |
In the maximization models, the objective function is alternatively named profit function. The logic behind this is the utmost goal of maximizing something is to gain a benefit or a “profit”. In the maximization models the value of Z needs to be increased as much as possible. An infinite number of iso-profit lines can be drawn for increasing values of Z. However, under the constraints of the model, the highest possible value of Z must reside in the feasible region.
As also understood from the information given, the statements in the options I, II and IV about the maximization models are correct, so the correct answer is D. The statement in the option III is not correct because of the fact that an infinite number of iso-profit lines can be drawn for increasing values of Z. However, under the constraints of the model, the highest possible value of Z must reside in the feasible region.
3.Soru
What is the process of choosing the most appropriate one of the alternatives?
Decision making |
Information |
Uncertainty |
Scarce source |
Number of alternatives |
The concept of decision making is to choose the most appropriate one among the available alternatives, in other words to make the best choice.The correct answer is 'A'.
4.Soru
Make a decision with method of Minimax Regret using the information in the Table.
(The objective is minimization.)
Product 1 = maximum regret = 5 days |
Product 2 = maximum regret = 8 days |
Product 3 = maximum regret = 6 days |
Product 4 = maximum regret = 4 days |
Product 5 = maximum regret = 3 days |
For the values given in the Table, a regret matrix is created. Because the objective is
minimization, the minimum value of each event is selected. The smallest value of each event is subtracted from all other values in relevant column. Thus, a regret matrix is created. This table shows the regret matrix of the problem.
According to the results in Table, maximum regret of each alternatives are as follows:
Product 1 = maximum regret = 5 days
Product 2 = maximum regret = 8 days
Product 3 = maximum regret = 6 days
Product 4 = maximum regret = 4 days
Product 5 = maximum regret = 3 days
The alternative with the smallest value (product 5) is chosen among the maximum regrets. The correct answer is E.
5.Soru
"The method used for the loss of opportunities when the best alternative is not selected is _______ ." Fill in the blank.
Criterion of Realism |
Minimax Regret |
Criterion of Pessimism |
Criterion of Optimism |
Equally Likely |
The method used for the loss of opportunities when the best alternative is not selected is “Minimax Regret”. This method is based on opportunity loss, also called regret. In this sense the correct answer is option B.
6.Soru
Which of the following is not a common characteristics of decision making?
Decision maker |
Scarce source |
Objective |
Alternatives |
Events |
There are some common characteristics of decision making. These are “decision maker”, “objective”, “alternatives (strategies/actions)”, “events (states of nature)”, “outcomes (pay-off)” and “payoff table / pay off matrices.The correct answer is 'B'.
7.Soru
E1, E2, and E3 show the events and A1, A2, A3, A4, and A5 show the alternatives. The cost values of each event are given in the following table. Which is the most appropriate decision according to the Criterion of Realism? (Alpha is 0.60)
A1 |
A2 |
A3 |
A4 |
A5 |
First, the minimum values are determined for each alternative. These values are multiplied by the ? coefficient. Then the maximum values are determined for each alternative. These values are multiplied by the (1- ?) coefficient. These values of each alternative are sum up.
Among these values, the lowest is 4.80, and this belongs to A1.
A1 = 2*0,6 + 9*0,4 = 4,80
8.Soru
A decision tree is a graphical approach that helps decision-makers see _________ they may encounter.
Which option below completes the sentence above best?
all the scenarios |
the probabilities of loss |
the possibilities of harm |
measurable uncertainty |
the distance from certainty and risk |
In a decision problem, occurrences are chance occurrences and all the chance occurrences are governed by probabilities. In the decision making with probability information, a strategy matrix is created and the best results are determined. Another approach used to solve such decision problems is the decision tree. A decision tree is a graphical approach that helps decision-makers see all the scenarios they may encounter. The correct answer is A.
9.Soru
Which of the following describes when the expected value criterion is commonly used in decision making at risk?
when comparing alternatives that involve money |
when the expected profit maximized |
when potential consequences multiplied |
when there is failure to select the best alternative |
when minimum expected opportunity loss is calculated |
In decision making at risk, the expected value criterion is commonly used when comparing alternatives. And when the decision’s consequences involve only money, we can calculate the Expected Monetary Value (EMV).
10.Soru
Which of the following assumptions casts out any variable that has an exponent other than 1?
Proportionality |
Additivity |
Divisibility |
Certainty |
Non-negativity |
Proportionality assumption casts out any variable that has an exponent other than 1. The correct answer is A.
11.Soru
What is an anticipated value for a given investment at some point in the future called?
Expected value |
Expected opportunity loss |
Maximum probability |
Expected profit |
Risky investment |
An anticipated value for a given investment at some point in the future is called expected value.
12.Soru
What is it called when the decision have information about the probabilities of occurrence of the event?
Decision making under certainty |
Decision making under risk |
Decision making under uncertainty |
Decision making environment |
Steps of decision making process |
When the decision have information about the probabilities of occurrence of the events, the decision making environment is called “decision making under risk”.The correct answer is "B".
13.Soru
- Decision Making Under Certainty
- Decision Making Under Control
- Decision Making Under Risk
- Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Which of the above are types of decision making environments?
I, II and III |
I, III and IV |
II, III and IV |
I, II and IV |
I, II, III and IV |
14.Soru
In which method the best outcome for each alternative is realised and decision maker select the best among these alternatives?
Laplace |
Plunger |
Wald |
Hurwicz |
Savage |
In criterion of optimism (plunger), the best outcome for each alternative is realized and decision maker select the best among these alternatives.
15.Soru
A food company is considering to establish a logistics company to manage its own logistics operations. On the other hand, the company has no experience and knowledge in the field of logistics. At this point, which of the following is the type of the decision environment that defines this situation?
Decision making under complexity |
Decision making under certainty |
Decision making under uncertainty |
Decision making under risk |
Decision making under error |
In a decision problem, the decision maker is aware of various possible events (states of nature) but has insufficient information to assign any probabilities of occurrence to them. This kind of a decision problem is termed as decision making under uncertainty. There are many unknowns and no possibility of knowing what could occur in the future to change the outcome of a decision in decision making under uncertainty.
For firms launching a new product, an important change in marketing strategy or opening first branch can be given examples of decision making under uncertainty.
In the context of the above explanations, the correct answer is C.
16.Soru
Which of the below are not among the common characteristics of decision making?
Objective |
Alternatives |
Events |
Scarce source |
Outcomes |
17.Soru
What is the decision situation in which the decision maker knows the probability of occurrence of each state of nature?
Decision making under certainty |
Decision making under uncertainty |
Decision making under half-certainty |
Decision making optimistically |
Decision making under risk |
In decision making under risk, there exist more than one state of nature and the decision maker has sufficient information to assign probabilities to the occurrence of each of these states. The probabilities can be obtained from past records or the subjective judgment of the decision maker. In other word, decision situations in which the chance of occurrence of each state of nature is known or can be estimated are defined as decisions made under risk.
18.Soru
How are decision situations in which the chance of occurrence of each state of nature is known or can be estimated defined?
Certainty decision problems |
Uncertainty decision problems |
Expected decision problems |
Stochastic decision problems |
Future-oriented decision problems |
han one state of nature and the decision maker has sufficient information to assign probabilities to the occurrence of each of these states. The probabilities can be obtained from past records or the subjective judgment of the decision maker. In other word, decision situations in which the chance of occurrence of each state of nature is known or can be estimated are defined as decisions made under risk. Such decision-making problems are also known as probabilistic or stochastic decision problems. The correct answer is D.
19.Soru
- The modeling phase is the transformation of verbal description of the problem into a mathematical model under the linear programming assumptions.
- Mathematical model is a system of equations and inequalities representing the objective and the constraints.
- The decision to be derived from the model is related to quantifiable variables that are in control.
- The variables of decision x1, x2, ... , xn are called the parameters.
- The constants (i.e. the coefficients and right-hand side values of the inequalities) are called the decision variables.
Which of the statements above about modeling with linear programming are correct?
I and II |
I and V |
I, II and III |
I, III, IV and V |
II, III, IV and V |
The modeling phase is the transformation of verbal description of the problem into a mathematical model under the linear programming assumptions. This model is a system of equations and inequalities representing the objective and the constraints. The decision to be derived from the model is related to quantifiable variables that are in control. These variables of decision x1, x2, ... , xn and the constants (i.e. the coefficients and right-hand side values of the inequalities) are called the decision variables and the parameters respectively. The objective function (for example, Z= 2x1 + x2) is an appropriate measure of performance for the problem. It can be maximized or minimized depending on the desired achievement. Finally, a constraint is a restriction on decision variables by means of equality or inequality (for example, 5x1 + 6x2 ? 30). As also understood from the information given, the statements in the options I, II and III are correct, so the correct answer is C. The statements in the option IV and V are not correct because of the fact that These variables of decision x1, x2, ... , xn and the constants (i.e. the coefficients and right-hand side values of the inequalities) are called the decision variables and the parameters respectively.
20.Soru
In which decision making environment, the decision maker has information about the probability of occurrence of each event?
Decision making under certainty |
Decision making under uncertainty |
Decision making under risk |
Decision making under stress |
Decision making under pressure |
In decision making under risk, decision makers have information about the probability of occurrence of each events. The probability value can be known precisely or predicted. These possibilities can be obtained from the personal opinions of the decision-maker, from the statistical records held in the enterprise, from expert opinions, from market research.
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