Chapter 1: Determinants of Turkish Foreign Policy

Determinants of Turkish Foreign Policy

Structural Determinants

Structural Determinants are continuous and static variables that shape a country’s foreign policy.

Ottoman Empire adopted the concept of ‘balance of power’ as a strategic behavior with the beginning of the imperial decline after the late 17th century. Turkey’s relative importance to other states has varied over time. At the beginning of the 20th century, as a newly established nation-state, Turkey had no desire for territorial conquests. However, it needed a realistic foreign policy to keep what it was able to salvage at the end of its War of Independence. From this perspective, and with the end of the imperial period, the expansionist perspective of the Ottoman Empire was left behind. The main concern of the country’s decision makers now was to preserve the independence and sovereignty of the state with few available resources.

Historical Experiences

Despite few restrictions on the Turkish Straits and some commercial and judicial privileges, the Treaty of Lausanne has served as the international recognition of the Turkish National Pact (Misak-ı Milli), which had been adopted in 1920 by the Meclis-i Mebusan, the Ottoman Parliament

Turkish nation, the Turkish Republic inescapably inherited some of the fundamental features of the Ottoman Empire that would help us to understand the background to Turkish foreign policy.

Constructive Legacies

In addition to its central geographic position, Turkey also inherited most of its bureaucratic elites from the Empire. Later during the one-party regime, this elite group served as the core of Turkey’s modernizing elite with the guidance of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

Sultan Abdülhamid II supported the idea of PanIslamism in order to prevent the disintegration of the Empire’s Muslim subjects.Therefore, one may conclude that establishing a Western-oriented secular state in 1920s did not contradict with the historical experience of the Turkish people. after the Second World War, Turkish leaders could successfully shape their foreign policies so as to benefit from the all-out struggle between the Eastern and Western blocs. However, the emergence of the Cold War with its strict bloc politics somewhat limited this. Eventually, when the Cold War ended, Turkish diplomacy turned again to its age-old track.

Problematic Legacies

the Treaty of Sevres had posed some challenges to the Turkish independence and its territorial integrity. According to the Sevres Treaty, the European territory of the Ottoman Empire (except the Straits), İzmir, and its hinterland in Anatolia were to be transferred to Greece. A sovereign Armenian state and an autonomous “Kurdistan” were to be established in Eastern Anatolia. France, Italy, and Britain were allowed to form “spheres of influence” in the rest of Anatolia. Only a small part of the central Anatolia was to be kept by the Turks with some restrictions. Together with the disruption of the territorial unity, capitulations were to be restored and the Straits were to be governed by an international regime. Although the Treaty of Sevres was still-born thanks to the National Struggle, it continues to affect Turkish attitude in various areas.

A related aspect of history that serves as a source of caution and skepticism in Turkish foreign policy is the issue of minorities. As the European attention on these communities grew stronger, the Western powers continuously involved in the domestic affairs of the Ottomans in a way to abuse the communities for their own political objectives. While the millet system had once served as a brilliant instrument of government, it triggered the self-destruction of the Empire.

Not only the interference in domestic affairs through minorities but also the financial control of the Empire by the European powers through the establishment of the Public Debt Service (Duyun-u Umumiye) in 1881 created severe trauma for the Turks.

Another problematic legacy is the “sense of greatness” in the common Turkish mind.

Geographical Setting

While this geographical position increases the geostrategic importance of Turkey, it also makes Turkey more sensitive to international developments and to changes in international and regional political and security balances.

In order to reduce the sense of insecurity and to counterbalance potential rivals, Turkey has joined the existing alliances at the time or it allied with regional states and outside powers. For this reason, Turkey, between 1920 and 1955, signed a number of friendship declarations with the neighbors and bilateral agreements with the USA. In an attempt to feel more secure, Turkey joined the Balkan Pact (1953), the Balkan Alliance (1954), and the Baghdad Pact (1955). Nevertheless, Turkey’s adherence to NATO in 1952 was the biggest step in terms of securing its borders.

The developments in the Middle East after the first World War and involvements by the outside powers in the region have taken place within the vicinity of Turkish borders and they increased the security concerns of Turkey to an even more heightened level.

Conjunctural Determinants

Conjunctural Determinants are dynamic variables that can change depending on the domestic and international developments. Due to the strong influence of structural determinants, Turkish foreign policy has benefited from its rationality, sense of responsibility, long-term perspective, and realism.

The end of the Cold War was another major turning point not only because of the transformations in the international system but also because of the dramatic changes that took place in political, economic, social, and cultural life in Turkey. Finally, the international developments after 9/11 and Arab uprisings in 2011 have largely affected the international system and Turkey as well. Moreover, the revisionist policies of the Justice and Development Party (AKP- Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi) caused main transformations in the decisionmaking process of Turkish foreign policy.

Turkish Foreign Policy in the Interwar Period, 1919-1939

While the grand ideas of the late Ottoman Empire (i.e. PanOttomanism, Pan-Islamism, and Pan-Turkism) were discarded, he insisted on replacing them with the principles of republicanism, secularism, and nationalism, all of which had major impacts on the country’s foreign policy, in addition to its domestic policy. As understood from his famous motto ‘peace at home, peace in the world’, he was connecting internal stability with the international peace and order. In order to have peaceful foreign policy and a stable country, it was necessary to deal with the domestic politics first.

Republicanism

The new Turkish Republic was against the revisionist and imperialist conceptions of the Ottoman Empire as well as totalitarian tendencies. Since the Kemalist principles were based on the equality of the citizens, it was expected to avoid creating conflicts among them and to maintain stability and internal peace.

Secularism

The main struggle for Kemalist secularists was focusing on the difference between democracy and theocracy.

Nationalism

The ambitions of the Turkish nationalist movement were limited to the national borders. Turkish nationalism was defined in terms of common citizenship, not in terms of religion or race. Moreover, it did not have any expansionist aims.

Other Characteristics of the National Independence Struggle

The main concern of the early Republican foreign policy was to achieve and protect the complete independence of the state after the National Struggle. Therefore, the ideas of accepting the mandate or protectorate of a foreign power was rejected from the beginning. However, this principle was not regarded as a barrier against forming alliances or signing political and military agreements with other countries. As such, it was Mustafa Kemal who spearheaded the establishment of the Balkan Pact in 1934 and the Saidabad Pact in 1937.

In addition, the new Republic rejected the idea of preserving the late-Ottoman economic privileges of the foreign Powers.

Turkey’s Cold-War Policies, 1945-1980

Turkey was able to avoid the World War II and most of its destructive aspects thanks to the realistic and pragmatic policies of the then decision makers, by aligning Turkey with France and Great Britain in 1939 and by concluding treaties of alliance and/ or non-aggression with all the belligerent parties, except Italy and Japan.

Determinants of Turkey’s Cold War Policies, 1945-60

Both systemic factors and domestic developments pushed Turkey toward a Western-dependent stance in international relations and accompanying Western-leaning foreign policy.

External Factor: Meeting the Soviet Threat

In terms of the systemic factors, the transformation of the international system into a bipolar structure forced Turkey to choose a side. Secondly, the Soviet Union became a superpower with some territorial demands from Turkey. Therefore, Turkey’s Western alignment occurred as a result of both the Soviet pressures and the demands of the bipolar international system.

Turkey’s neutral stance during the war left Turkey alone in the post-World War environment to face the Soviet threat alone, though this allowed it to avoid the damages of the war.

Turkey’s post-war isolation ended with the declaration made by Great Britain in March 1946. Great Britain announced that the 1939 Treaty of Alliance was still in force and that it was obliged to help Turkey in case of any aggression. Even though the Soviets repeated their demands several times, the Allied states sided with Turkey in opposing them.

However, as the UK decided that it could not cope with its international commitments in the wider world in the postwar atmosphere, its position was gradually filled by the US in Europe and the Middle East. Thus, with the declaration of the Truman Doctrine in 1947 and the Marshall Plan in 1948, Turkey’s connection with the US was established, leading to Turkey’s Western dependency in 1950s and beyond.

The final point of Turkey’s Western connection in security and military terms was its membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Democracy, Economic Development, and Foreign Policy

After the one-party political system, Turkey adopted a multiparty political system at the end of the Second World War, which also contributed to its willingness to pursue closer relations with Western democracies.

Turkey’s economic needs at the end of the war also directed it toward a Western-dependent foreign policy. in order to keep its army intact and to further modernize it, Turkey needed international loans, which were only available from the US at the time. Those restrictions, however, would pose problems for Turkey in the long term.

In 1948 Turkey joined the Organization for European Economic Cooperation (which is the forerunner of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development – OECD. In 1950, Turkey also became one of the founding members of the Council of Europe. Taking part in these European institutions was important for Turkey’s economic and political needs at the time. During the Democratic Party governments. As Turkey adopted a free enterprise economy and a foreign-investment-induced development program, its dependence on foreign aid increased.

Turkish Foreign Policy in the InterCoup Period, 1960- 1980

The Turkish-American relationship and Turkey’s Western attachment that started with the 1939 Turkey-UK-France Alliance and grew stronger with the Truman Doctrine, Marshall Plan, and Turkey’s membership in NATO began to cool down during the 1960s and deteriorated in the 1970s. With the change in the international environment, domestic political changes as well as the rise of antiAmerican sentiment in Turkey, Turkish foreign policy moved into a phase of reevaluation during the 1970s. Even though the 1964 Cyprus crisis and the related developments were the turning point for the TurkishAmerican relations, various domestic and international developments led to a perceivable shift in Turkish foreign policy.

Détente and Turkish Foreign Policy

While Turkey in the 1950s had tried to develop its relations only with the Western bloc, it had to move to expand its relations to the new centers of economic, political, and military power in the 1970s in order to employ its full potential in international relations.

Effects of Pluralist Democracy

The Democratic Party period ended with a military coup on May 27, 1960. With the emergence of a relatively free political atmosphere during the inter-coup period and the development of student activism all around the world, Turkish youth started to develop radicalism during the late 1960s and this grew stronger in the 1970s. What started as peaceful student demonstrations in late 1960s quickly polarized and turned into armed clashes between the leftwing and right-wing student groups during the 1970s.

Cyprus as a Foreign Policy Determinant

Cyprus was vital for Turkey. Since it is located in the Eastern Mediterranean, the channels from Turkey to the open seas would be cut off if it were to fall into the hands f a hostile country. For this reason, starting from the 1950s, Turkey resisted to the Greek designs on the island. Secondly, because of the presence of a large Turkish community on the island, the Cyprus issue was perceived emotionally and in the context of a national pride. The Greek plan of Enosis was considered as the first step for the Megali Idea. Thus, when violent clashes started between the two communities on the island at the end of 1963, Turkey, governed by a fragile coalition government, immediately found itself involved in the crisis. Finally, becoming an independent state in 1960, Cyprus was taking a separate position from Greece.

Turkish Foreign Policy during the 1970s

Turkey’s major problem with the US between 1966 and 1974 was the cultivation of opium poppies in Turkey.

Both the worldwide energy crisis of the mid-1970s and the American embargo in connection with the Cyprus issue severely affected the Turkish economy. While Turkey needed foreign credits and loans, foreign creditors required serious austerity measures as a prerequisite to extending further loans.

Foreign Policy Setting at the End of the Cold War, 1980-2000

By the end of 1970s, both the domestic and international stage was ready for Turkey to start a soul-searching in its foreign policy.

The military coup d’état of September 12, 1980 became, in the longer run, an important watershed as it brought about fundamental changes to the domestic politics, sociology, economics, and consequently foreign policy of Turkey.

At the same time, the shift toward a liberal economy with the January 24, 1980 decisions made it necessary for Turkey to prioritize its economic needs in its external relations, because the new economic model required sustained foreign currency inflows and ever-increasing exports.

The 1980 coup did not only result in political and economic changes in Turkey but also had farreaching social effects.

Wth the onset of all-out globalization, Turkey started to experience increased importance of hyper-identities in politics, specifically wider religious, historical, and ethnic bonds among its citizens.

Challenges of the Post-Cold War Era and Ensuing Changes since 2000

There were two major international developments, ten years apart, that affected Turkey’s international standing and foreign policy in the 2000s: the terror attacks on the US in September 2001 (the 9/11 incidents) and the Arab uprisings in 2011.

Turkey had focused on Central Asia and the Caucasus during the 1990s, and on the Balkans and the Black Sea region during the 2000s. With the new changes, Turkey focused on building stronger relations with the Middle East during the 2010s. Both security/ strategic reasons and ideological/political choices played a part in this policy shift, because there was an increasing threat perception from the region, including a number of US interventions and the continuing threat of terrorist organizations.

Together with the re-evaluation of its geography and history, Turkey’s governing philosophy was also affected by this transformation. Kemalism was confronted with a reassessment and challenge. Along with the rising influences of neo-conservatism, neo-liberalism, and neofundamentalism, Turkey experienced a growing effect of its formerly underprivileged classes from Anatolia.

This renewed look at the Middle East brought a series of new policy initiatives. Abolishing visas, creating freetrade zones, high-level cooperation councils, joint cabinet meetings, and wide-ranging political, economic and social openings to the region can be counted as examples of Turkey’s new policy stance.