STATISTICS II (İSTATİSTİK II) - (İNGİLİZCE) Dersi Decision Theory soru detayı:
SORU:
Explain states of nature in decision making process.
CEVAP:
In decision making, states of nature are the outcomes on which the decision maker has little or no control. If you make an investment on different assets such as purchasing gold, foreign currency, or bonds for a specific time period, the gain at the end of the period is affected by the state of the economy during your investment period. Different asset’s prices will react differently to the different economic conditions. Therefore, you may define, as an example, two states of nature such as good economic conditions and bad economic conditions in your investment period. Deciding on states of nature is important since these are the conditions that might arise once you commit to your decision. The past data on the decision problem becomes an important issue for choosing the appropriate states of nature. Remember commute to work example, usually the weather conditions will affect the choice of transportation to work, in a snowy day taking a train might be quicker than driving your car. Therefore, weather conditions can be studied as states of nature or states of world in this example.